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So, structural macroeconometric models can capture all sorts of economic business cycle theories, endogenous and exogenous, provided the translation into an econometric model works out well and identifying conditions are satisfied. Tests reveal the explanatory power of specific business cycle theories. 6) First, one has to select from the set of observed variables Z the variables Y that enter the system. 7) Straightforward application of statistical techniques suffices at this stage. Economic theory comes in to analyse VAR systems.

Canova et al. (1994) derive a VAR representation from the RBC model, estimate this VAR model and compare outcomes to the observed series. Ingram and Whiteman (1994) develop a prior distribution from a RBC model and use it in a Bayesian VAR model. 2 The theory-measurement distinction Before we assess the four EBCR methods on the basis of the four goals of business cycle research, that is description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the way theory is handled, we illustrate how the econometric methodology component is dealt with.

The newest type of simultaneous equations models, applied general equilibrium (AGE) models, have also come into existence as a reaction to the Lucas critique. These models are derived from microeconomic principles assuming market clearing and rational agents. The models are used mainly for policy evaluation. Since deep structural parameters are estimated, the models meet the Lucas critique. 1 AGE models generally lack detailed dynamic specifications. They can be useful for comparative static analyses but give poor estimates of dynamic paths of adjustments.

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All about metal by Norman Colton

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